基于最大熵（MaxEnt）模型对西北地区2种红砂属植物潜在适宜区预测分析

基于黄花红砂与五柱红砂的现有分布数据，利用地理信息系统（ArcGIS）技术与最大熵（MaxEnt）模型软件，对2种红砂属植物在3个时期的潜在适宜分布区进行模拟。结果表明:1）五柱红砂的潜在适宜分布区主要在青海地区、新疆南疆地区以及甘肃部分地区；黄花红砂的潜在适宜分布区主要集中在宁夏地区、内蒙古地区、甘肃地区以及新疆与青海部分地区。2种红砂属植物在3个时期的潜在适宜分布区有所增加。黄花红砂的潜在适宜区朝着东北方向移动，五柱红砂的潜在适宜区出现收缩现象。2种红砂属的低适宜区相比较高适宜区与较适宜区变化较大。2）黄花红砂与五柱红砂通过MaxEnt模型运算出的AUC值均>0.9，表明MaxEnt模型预测精度很高。可以用于2种红砂属植物的潜在适宜分布区的预测。3）控制黄花红砂潜在分布的关键环境变量为最湿月降水量、最暖季度降水量和最湿季度降水量，影响五柱红砂潜在分布的关键环境变量为海拔、等温性和温度季节性变化。上述研究结果对2种红砂属植物资源保护利用与未来分布趋势提供了重要的指导意义。     

高寒牧区黑麦和箭筈豌豆混播对草产量和营养品质的影响研究

为筛选适宜甘肃高寒牧区的箭筈豌豆与黑麦混播组合及比例，采用裂区设计，研究了3个箭筈豌豆品种（绿箭1号、绿箭2号和绿箭431）与黑麦新品系C33在不同混播比例（0∶100、20∶80、30∶70、40∶60、50∶50、60∶40、70∶30、80∶20、100∶0）下的生产性能及营养品质。结果表明，从混播组合看，A?（C33×绿箭1号）的平均干草产量（7.16 t·hm^-2）和综合评价值（0.860）较高；从混播比例看，B?（60∶40）的平均干草产量（8.01 t·hm^-2）和综合评价值（0.691）最高；混播组合和混播比例间的交互作用表明，A?以B?比例混播时干草产量（9.03 t·hm^-2）和综合评价值（0.711）最高。     

内蒙古平原灌区“春麦冬播”种植效应及品种适应性

针对内蒙古春播小麦生育期短、干热风、高温逼熟等因素制约产量提高,且收获后光温资源极大浪费的现状,以及试种冬小麦发现的冬季冻害、春季干旱或“倒春寒”影响返青率及前茬限制等问题,本研究以“春麦冬播”种植模式为切入点,采用不同春化类型小麦品种,通过连续2年的田间试验,系统研究了不同小麦品种越冬出苗、叶片生理、根系性状及产量形成的差异,以期筛选适宜冬播的小麦品种。结果表明:供试的全部春性小麦品种及部分冬性品种可以以种子形式完成春化作用,第2年正常抽穗成熟。冬播条件下春季田间出苗率较春播小麦有所降低,但根系发达,对低温及干旱的适应性强。通过系统聚类筛选出适宜内蒙古平原灌区冬播的3个小麦品种,包括春性品种永良4号、冬性品种宁冬11号和半冬性品种河农7106,其共同特征为越冬出苗率高、抗逆性强、根系发达、产量表现较高,其中永良4号产量可达到与春播相同的水平。     

Simulation of future dissolved oxygen distribution in pond culture based on sliding window-temporal convolutional network and trend surface analysis

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key ecological factor to measure the quality of water in the aquaculture. As the pond water body is affected by the breeding environment, the spatial distribution of DO shows a certain law in the entire pond. Therefore, to simulate the distribution of DO in aquaculture waters and grasp the temporal and spatial variation of DO is the key to achieving precise regulation of DO. For this purpose, this paper proposed a method for simulating the temporal and spatial distribution of DO in pond culture based on a sliding window-temporal convolutional network together with trend surface analysis (SW-TCN-TSA). This paper first utilized SW to construct DO data sets with different prediction durations, and then used the improved TCN model to realize one-dimensional time series prediction for DO at single monitoring point. Based on the prediction results of DO, a TSA method was performed on the predicted values of DO at the extreme moments of all discrete monitoring points, so as to realize the simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of DO in the pond. Experimental results show that the SW-TCN model has better prediction performance for one-dimensional time series prediction of DO. Compared with traditional deep networks, such as CNN, GRU, LSTM, CNN-GRU and CNN-LSTM, the values of evaluation indicators (MSE, MAE and RMSE) have been greatly improved. In the process of trend surface fitting, all fitting R² of DO at different water depths are higher than 0.9, indicating that the TSA can accurately reflect the temporal and spatial distribution of DO. This method can provide a basis for the prediction and early warning of DO in the three-dimensional space of the pond and has high practicability in aquaculture.     

气候变化情景下毛竹潜在分布及动态预测

为探究毛竹的潜在分布及其动态变化，并确定对其分布起主导作用的环境变量，文章基于MaxEnt预测模型，利用环境变量图层及316个毛竹分布点数据研究毛竹地理分布的变化。结果显示：1）限制毛竹分布的主要环境变量为最干月降水量、年均降水量、最冷月最低温、年平均温、温度年较差和海拔；2）当前毛竹的潜在适生区主要位于中国东南部，与亚热带季风气候区大致重叠，高适生区主要位于总适生区的东部和西北部；3）在未来气候情景下，毛竹总适生区面积有所缩减，各不同等级适生区面积变化大，其中高适生区面积大幅度缩减。研究获得的毛竹适生区变化趋势可为毛竹培育、引种以及入侵防治提供参考。     

单叶刺槐半同胞子代叶片的滞尘能力及叶表SEM特征分析

以单叶刺槐母本(A1-1)及6个叶形产生明显变异的半同胞子代无性系(A20-5、B24-3、C24-2、B23-1、C24-1、C23-1)新鲜叶片为材料,测定各样本的单位叶面积总颗粒物滞留量、颗粒物粒径分析及叶表微观结构SEM特征,通过相关性分析,筛选与滞尘能力相关的叶形及SEM指标,运用隶属函数法,依据各样本滞尘指标的隶属度均值对滞尘能力进行综合评价。结果表明:子代B23-1对空气中总颗粒物的滞留能力最强,C24-1对PM2.5的滞留能力最强,A20-5对PM2.5-10及PM>10的滞留能力最强;部分叶形及SEM特征指标与滞尘指标之间存在显著相关性;综合评价滞尘能力,全部样本可分为4类,第Ⅰ类为B23-1,滞尘能力强;第Ⅱ类为C24-1,滞尘能力较强;第Ⅲ类包括母本、A20-5、C23-1、C24-2,滞尘能力中等;第Ⅳ类为B24-3,滞尘能力相对较差。     

Examining horizontal and vertical social ties to achieve social–ecological fit in an emerging marine reserve network

1. Most MPA networks are designed only with ecological processes in mind to increase their conservation utility. However, since MPA networks often involve large geographic areas, they also affect and involve multiple actors, institutions, and policy sectors.
2. A key challenge when establishing an effective MPA network is to align the ‘social system’ with the biophysical MPA network (the ‘ecological system’). This challenge is often denoted as ‘social–ecological fit’.
3. Facilitating collaborative social interactions among various actors and stakeholders (social connectivity) is equally as important as accomplishing ecological connectivity. New analytical approaches are required to effectively examine this ‘social’ dimension of fit.
4. An emerging marine reserve network in Jamaica and the recent invasion of Indo‐Pacific lionfish are used as a case study to: (1) examine the extent to which horizontal and vertical social ties bring local and national actors together to collaborate, coordinate, and share knowledge; and (2) assess the extent to which different attributes and features of such multilevel social networks may enhance or inhibit particular aspects of social–ecological fit.
5. Findings suggest that multilevel linkages have played the greatest role in relation to enhancing fit in the marine reserve network in the context of the recent lionfish invasion. However, the long‐term propensity of the multi‐actor and multilevel networks to enhance social–ecological fit is uncertain given the prevalence of weak social ties, lack of a culture of information sharing and collaboration, and limited financial resources.

     

大兴安岭北部林区森林防火基础设施建设成效及对策

大兴安岭北部林区森林防火基础设施建设项目是建国后国家一次性用于国有林区森林防火投资最大的基础设施建设工程。介绍了该项目建设的基本情况,总结了主要建设成效,分析了存在问题,提出了相关对策建议。     

兰州市高海拔旱作区娃娃菜栽培技术

在分析兰州市高海拔地区自然条件的基础上,有针对性地提出了高海拔旱作区娃娃菜栽培技术,以供参考。     

左右岸省界缓冲区水质达标评价方法研究

左右岸省界缓冲区作为协调省际间用水关系的重要水域,其水质达标评价及污染责任划分是流域限制纳污红线制度实施的重要内容。从左右岸省界缓冲区的相关概念出发,根据省份的位置关系将其分为缓冲区完全在两省省界上、缓冲区部分在两省省界上以及缓冲区在多省交界上三种情形,并结合左右岸省界缓冲区特点确定调整浓度核算法、代表断面判断法、限制排污总量-污染物入河量评估法等水质达标评价方法,以判断左右岸省份缓冲区的水质达标情况,从而划分缓冲区左右岸省份的污染责任。实例验证模拟显示,确定的方法切实可行,研究方法可为流域污染责任划分提供技术支撑,从而促进限制纳污制度的顺利实施。